Iranian attack on Israel, a “dangerous” Middle East tipping point

In the “indirect war” that the two countries are currently engaged in, Iran launched a huge attack on Israel on the night of Saturday leading up to Sunday.

This was Iran’s first entry into the territory of its sworn enemy. Is this strike the beginning of an open battle between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Hebrew State, despite the fact that the international community is working to bring it under control in order to prevent an escalation of violence in the Middle East? The specialists take stock.

According to Thomas Juneau, an associate professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, “If Iran had wanted to open an all-out war with Israel, we would have seen Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen […] enter the conflict on a large scale.” This statement was made at the begin of the conflict.

It is true that the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Lebanese Hezbollah have both launched missiles and drones in the direction of Israeli land; nevertheless, they have not yet been further active in the operation. According to Mr. Juneau, which he maintains, “It absolutely must be interpreted as a signal from Iran that we do not want escalation, that we do not want total war.” But there is a risk involved, and it is dangerous.

It has been reported by Iran’s army that Iran has fired “more than 350” projectiles, including “ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, rockets, and drones,” in the direction of Israel. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that only a few ballistic missiles “entered and lightly hit” a military base that is still operational. He also revealed that some people had light injuries, including a girl who was seven years old and admitted to the intensive care unit.

Thomas Juneau encourages that this warning from Iran not be taken lightly, stating that “it’s huge, it’s a large-scale attack.” The term “symbolic” should not be used in a way that gives the idea that it is a minor or unimportant term.

Should we be concerned about a direct conflict between the two nations that are the adversaries? Thomas Juneau is quoted as saying, “Everything will depend on the nature of Israel’s response as to what happens.” For certain, there will be a second response from Iran in the event that Israel strikes on a significant scale today or tomorrow. It is at this point that we move into scenarios of escalation, which practically everyone, including Iran and the United States, would like to avoid.

According to the professor, a calibrated reply by the Jewish state, which would not hit Iran head-on and which would not occur in the immediate term, would let us return to the context that existed before to the strike that took place this past weekend.

It is certain that the manner of the Israeli response will betray the goals of the Israeli government, Mr. Juneau believes. It is a widely held belief in Israel that if Israel were to take no action, whether it be today, tomorrow, or this week, it would send a message of impunity to Iran. This is a belief that is not entirely incorrect.

According to Thomas Juneau, however, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, is more cautious than we commonly believe. He says, “A scenario of total war with Iran, […] I still tend to think that it will be very hesitant, because it becomes extremely destabilizing and costly.”

According to Sami Aoun, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Sherbrooke, “There appears to be a commitment from Mr. Netanyahu himself and from Israelis in general that no strike against Iran should be carried out without coordination with the United States.” These words were spoken by Aoun. However, a counteroffensive on Iranian land is still a possibility, according to the guy who also leans toward the theory of a return to a “limited and targeted” war. “That, it seems, is clear,” he says.

Immediately following the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which Tehran attributed to Israel, Tehran made a commitment to provide a reaction to Israel at the beginning of the month. Both top leaders of the Revolutionary Guards who were in charge of the Quds force, which was responsible for activities outside of the Islamist Republic, were killed as a result of this.

According to Sami Aoun, “It is a war that was orchestrated, measured, and prepared in advance,” saying that it was planned out in advance. Israel was briefed by the United States that the strike would not harm major cities or military targets, according to him. The Iranians had already sent widespread warnings to surrounding countries about their retaliation.

What, then, was the purpose of this rude behavior? The lecturer stated that “the truth is that it is not an open declaration of war, but practically, it is simply to save face.” This is the truth. After the attack on their consulate in the capital of Syria, the Iranians reported feeling humiliated and saying that their dignity had been violated. According to him, they had the impression that their reputation was damaged in the Muslim world as well as in the Arab world.

At the end of the day, Sami Aoun comes to the conclusion that Tehran “regains a certain respectability in what is called “the axis of resistance,” that is to say its various militias.”

Israel, together with the United States and many other ally countries, including France and the United Kingdom, boasted on Sunday about the “unprecedented defense” it put up against the attack that was brought on by Iran.

Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli army, stated that this was the first time that a coalition of this kind has worked together to combat the threat posed by Iran and its proxies.

According to Sami Aoun, the success of this resistance puts to the forefront the solidity of the Hebrew State’s relations with the West. He feels that this is a strategic advantage for the Hebrew State government.

“Unanimously” condemning the Iranian attack, calling on “all parties” to “restraint,” and reiterating their “full support” for Israel, the leaders of the G7 countries gathered via videoconference on Sunday were “ready to take measures” against Tehran “in response to new destabilization initiatives.” They also affirmed their “full support” for Israel.

At the same time, Israel reassures itself of the crucial backing it receives from the United States, which has been Israel’s greatest ally throughout its history and with whom relations have lately been put to the test by military operations in the Gaza Strip.

The tensions with the Americans have momentarily subsided, according to Sami Aoun, who says, “We observe that the dispute between Biden and Netanyahu is “downgraded.”

In addition, the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations made a request to the Security Council on Sunday, requesting that “all possible sanctions” be imposed against Iran in response to the attack that took place on Iranian soil.

“Israel, which has been considered an aggressor in recent months, will now take advantage of the image of victim,” the professor believes, speculating that this incident may be utilized by the Jewish state in order to shift attention away from the tragic war that is taking place in Gaza.

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