2024 US presidential election: Vermont, Republican exception resists Trump

During the Super Tuesday primaries that took place on March 5, Vermont was the only state in the United States to vote for Nikki Haley, who is Donald Trump’s opponent in the Republican primary.

This formerly Republican stronghold, which voted for Democratic candidates in the most recent presidential elections, is not indicative of the Republican electorate as it exists today.

Since Nikki Haley, the most recent Republican candidate to challenge Donald Trump, emerged victorious in the Vermont primary, the former president was deprived of a grand slam on “Super Tuesday.” On Wednesday, March 6, the candidate made an instant announcement that she would be abstaining from carrying out her campaign. This triumph, however, was symbolic. Within the context of the current Republican political landscape, Vermont stands out as an anomaly due to its rural and sparsely populated state.

Vermont, which serves as one of the smallest states in the United States, can be found in the northeastern region of the country. From 1856, the year that marked the first presidential election in which the Republican Party was represented, until the early 1990s, inhabitants of this state, which has been regarded for a long time as the most conservative of the New England states, voted solely for candidates affiliated with the Republican Party. With the sole exception of 1964, when Lyndon Johnson ended up winning the election.

On the other hand, beginning in the 1960s, Republican candidates in that state began to lose their lead and were consistently elected with a lower percentage of the vote than in other states in the region, which is indicative of a steady shift in electoral procedures. As Renan-Abhinav Moog recalls in an article for the journal of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, an evolution that is linked to “the installation of an urban population coming from New York and Massachusetts, younger, more liberal, and more educated than the local population” as well as a “significant share of city dwellers” who came to build their houses there secondary, this is a phenomenon that has occurred.

As a manifestation of this loss, the Republican candidate in the presidential election of 1988, which was contested between George Bush and Michael Dukakis, won by a razor-thin margin, with 51.1% of the vote. When this occurred, Vermont was for the first time deemed to be a “swing state,” ve captured in order to change the outcome of the election.

Additionally, the Democrats were successful in capturing the little state during the subsequent presidential election, which took place in 1992. This was to the advantage of Bill Clinton, who went on to win 46.1% of the vote, while his Republican opponent received 30.4% of the vote. Ever since this date, Vermont has consistently voted for the Democratic candidate in presidential

elections (Bill Clinton once more in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, Barack Obama in 2008, and then again in 2012).Despite the fact that Vermont is a very tiny and rural state, it is the bastion of both the left-wing senator Bernie Sanders, who was a disappointed candidate in the Democratic primary in 2020, and the Republican governor Phil Scott. This latter individual, who is a staunch opponent of Donald Trump, was the first Republican governor to advocate for the impeachment of the former president in the year 2019.

Marie-Christine Bonzom, a political scientist who specializes in the United States and a former BBC journalist in Washington, explains the following statement: “Vermont is not representative of today’s Republican electorate.” For example, “It is a state that is characterized by an old tradition of independence of mind and a certain progressivism, although it is more philosophical than political.”

The census conducted by the government in 2016 revealed that 95.6% of Vermont‘s voters, totaling 504,976 individuals, are white, have a level of education that is slightly higher than the average for the country, and are a little bit older.

An additional advantage that Nikki Haley was able to take use of was the “open” primary process, which enabled any voter who was registered on the electoral roll to cast a vote during this race. Therefore, voters who were not associated with any political party, also known as “independents,” and Democrats were able to amplify their voices. In the event if Phil Scott conducted a very vigorous campaign in the state for Nikki Haley, who ended up winning fifty percent of the votes, Donald Trump would still have received forty-six percent of the votes.

” It’s a good victory, but the result remains close,” Marie-Christine Bonzom emphasizes. ” The outcome is still very close.” Due of this, Nikki Haley considers it to be nothing more than a symbolic win. “Her abandonment in the presidential race was long expected,” adds the political scientist for whom the support garnered by Nikki Haley in Vermont, but especially in North Carolina and Utah, where the primaries were less open to non-voters. “Her abandonment in the race for the Republican nomination was long expected.” The Republicans, on the other hand, have confirmed that “the party is not yet unified behind Trump and that Republican voters will refuse to vote for him.”

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